REALTIME PROJECTIONS
7/31/2025
VS
WIN %
52.12%
TOTAL RUNS
T/ RUNS
9.89
WIN %
47.88%
7/31/2025
VS
WIN %
39.71%
TOTAL RUNS
T/ RUNS
7.5
WIN %
60.29%
7/31/2025
VS
WIN %
41.96%
TOTAL RUNS
T/ RUNS
9.88
WIN %
58.04%
7/31/2025
VS
WIN %
41.96%
TOTAL RUNS
T/ RUNS
9.88
WIN %
58.04%
7/31/2025
VS
WIN %
41.96%
TOTAL RUNS
T/ RUNS
9.88
WIN %
58.04%
7/31/2025
VS
WIN %
41.96%
TOTAL RUNS
T/ RUNS
9.88
WIN %
58.04%
7/31/2025
VS
WIN %
52.12%
TOTAL RUNS
T/ RUNS
9.89
WIN %
47.88%
7/31/2025
VS
WIN %
39.71%
TOTAL RUNS
T/ RUNS
7.5
WIN %
60.29%
7/31/2025
VS
WIN %
41.96%
TOTAL RUNS
T/ RUNS
9.88
WIN %
58.04%
7/30/2025
VS
WIN %
60.77%
TOTAL RUNS
T/ RUNS
8.17
WIN %
39.23%
7/30/2025
VS
WIN %
55.56%
TOTAL RUNS
T/ RUNS
8.07
WIN %
44.44%
7/30/2025
VS
WIN %
35.45%
TOTAL RUNS
T/ RUNS
9.75
WIN %
64.55%
7/30/2025
VS
WIN %
44.52%
TOTAL RUNS
T/ RUNS
8.74
WIN %
55.48%
7/30/2025
VS
WIN %
35.41%
TOTAL RUNS
T/ RUNS
8.18
WIN %
64.59%
7/30/2025
VS
WIN %
42.41%
TOTAL RUNS
T/ RUNS
8.12
WIN %
57.59%
7/30/2025
VS
WIN %
62.44%
TOTAL RUNS
T/ RUNS
10.05
WIN %
37.56%
7/30/2025
VS
WIN %
55.76%
TOTAL RUNS
T/ RUNS
8.13
WIN %
44.24%
7/30/2025
VS
WIN %
61.51%
TOTAL RUNS
T/ RUNS
8.83
WIN %
38.49%
7/30/2025
VS
WIN %
28.82%
TOTAL RUNS
T/ RUNS
6.12
WIN %
71.18%
7/30/2025
VS
WIN %
58.75%
TOTAL RUNS
T/ RUNS
8.05
WIN %
41.25%
7/30/2025
VS
WIN %
55.75%
TOTAL RUNS
T/ RUNS
8.66
WIN %
44.25%
7/30/2025
VS
WIN %
51.94%
TOTAL RUNS
T/ RUNS
9.26
WIN %
48.06%
7/30/2025
VS
WIN %
51.61%
TOTAL RUNS
T/ RUNS
8.68
WIN %
48.39%
7/30/2025
VS
WIN %
58.88%
TOTAL RUNS
T/ RUNS
9.38
WIN %
41.12%
7/29/2025
VS
WIN %
53.87%
TOTAL RUNS
T/ RUNS
8.78
WIN %
46.13%
7/29/2025
VS
WIN %
49.77%
TOTAL RUNS
T/ RUNS
8.88
WIN %
50.23%
7/29/2025
VS
WIN %
33.24%
TOTAL RUNS
T/ RUNS
9.04
WIN %
66.76%
7/29/2025
VS
WIN %
56.54%
TOTAL RUNS
T/ RUNS
8.37
WIN %
43.46%
7/29/2025
VS
WIN %
53.63%
TOTAL RUNS
T/ RUNS
9.07
WIN %
46.37%
7/29/2025
VS
WIN %
71.43%
TOTAL RUNS
T/ RUNS
8.57
WIN %
28.57%
7/29/2025
VS
WIN %
36.66%
TOTAL RUNS
T/ RUNS
6.92
WIN %
63.34%
7/29/2025
VS
WIN %
57.81%
TOTAL RUNS
T/ RUNS
8.4
WIN %
42.19%
7/29/2025
VS
WIN %
39.24%
TOTAL RUNS
T/ RUNS
7.07
WIN %
60.76%
7/29/2025
VS
WIN %
50.11%
TOTAL RUNS
T/ RUNS
9.05
WIN %
49.89%
7/29/2025
VS
WIN %
36.26%
TOTAL RUNS
T/ RUNS
8.28
WIN %
63.74%
7/29/2025
VS
WIN %
61.9%
TOTAL RUNS
T/ RUNS
9.28
WIN %
38.1%
HOW WE MAKE PICKS
DATA ACQUISITION
Our win probability model is created using Statcast data over the last 5 seasons and has been applied to the 3,300 games that occurred over the last two seasons. With each season, the model is updated with new data to keep the predictions accurate.
DATA ANALYSIS
Using our individual player projections, each day we input the starting pitchers and run a Monte Carlos simulation to simulate each game 10,000 times and identify the median outcomes.
PROJECTION OUTPUT
The model outputs the predicted win percentage for each team as well as the total runs scored in the game. We then compare to lines provided by sports book and bet the games we identify an edge on.
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